Heat-related mortality around the world has risen 63% since the 1990s and reached 546,000 deaths annually on average (2012–21). In 2024, the average person was exposed to 16 days of dangerous heat that would not have occurred without climate change.8
Sources
M. Romanello, M. Walawender, S. Hsu et al. 2025. ‘The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Climate change action offers a lifeline’. The Lancet 406, 2804–57.
Decreased yields of staple crops(e.g., maize and wheat), particularly in low-latitude regions.9
In the absence of effective adaptation, global crop yields could decline by up to 30% by mid-century10 and 3°C of warming above pre-industrial levels could cause 20–48% of current crop production to shift outside its climatic niche11. Falling crop yields could push an estimated 43 million people in Africa alone into poverty by 2030.12
Sources
C. Mbow, C. Rosenzweig, L.G. Barioni et al. 2019. ‘Food Security’. In: P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia et al. (eds.), Climate Change and Land: an IPCC Special Report. Cambridge University Press, 437–550.
Up to 50% of the global population is already experiencing water scarcity13 and this figure is projected to increase because of climate warming.14 Populations facing water stress have more than doubled between 1980 and 2010 and this figure is expected to increase by between 50% to 100% by 2100.15 By 2050 approximately 60% of the world's population is projected to face water stress for at least one month per year by 2050.16
IPCC. 2019. ‘Summary for policymakers’. In: P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia et al. (eds.), Climate Change and Land: an IPCC Special Report. Cambridge University Press.
Globally over 30% of glacier mass has been lost since 1970, and many mountain ranges will lose glaciers completely within the coming decades.18 Himalayan glaciers are disappearing 65% faster since 2010.19 Scientists project these glaciers could lose up to 75% of their volume by 2100, affecting water availability for up to 2 billion people.20
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may already be slowing,22,23 and is considered at moderate risk of collapse even in low-emission scenarios.24 Such an event could shift tropical rainfall patterns, reduce European winter temperatures by up to 20°C, and raise sea levels by an additional 50cm. Iceland recently designated AMOC collapse as a national security and existential risk and initiated coordinated government planning.25 A scientific assessment on AMOC stability is being undertaken at the EU level;26 Norway, Ireland and the UK have all increased AMOC research investment;27 and an international AMOC preparedness taskforce is being established.28
Pacific island nations including Tuvalu and Kiribati face at least 15cm of sea level rise in the next 30 years regardless of emissions trajectories.29 The Western Pacific could become the first region to experience the complete loss of a sovereign state due to climate change, with sea level rise projected to cost the Marshall Islands its status as a nation.30
Economic costs of weather-related damages and macroeconomic disruption.
Damages from extreme weather events from 2000 to 2019 were estimated to average US$143 billion per year.31 Projections of economic losses due to future warming vary widely depending on assumptions about the level of adaptation and the steepness of the climate damage curve, with one study estimating that global gross domestic product could contract by between 9 and 36% by 2100.32