A Global Solar Geoengineering Restraint Agreement is adopted at UNEA but stalls at ratification.
African, Latin American and Pacific leadership builds a precautionary majority; states with SAI programmes refuse to be bound.
Central tension Does a normative position without infrastructure deter deployment, or does it concede capability, and choice, to others?
A private large-scale outdoor test is days from launch, backed by powerful states. SAI has been rebranded as cheap economic relief, protecting against climate-driven migration and insurance failure. Mitigation continues with weakened political backing.
Central tension Can public institutions put guardrails on a privately-led cooling agenda once it takes a life of its own – and can cooling coexist with mitigation?
An Arctic research alliance built on radical transparency, Indigenous inclusion and regional self-defence loses legitimacy after a drone lands outside its test zone. Flight data is selectively quoted online as evidence of covert activity. Neighbouring states move toward research bans.
Central tension Can good-faith transparency sustain legitimacy in an information environment shaped by hostile actors?
A rival is accused of preparing for SAI deployment. Contested evidence drives escalation toward great-power competition.
Research programmes are classified; middle powers debate developing atmospheric capabilities to balance against escalation.
Central tension Once SAI is framed as weather sovereignty, will climate considerations still hold influence?